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Bets That
Can't Lose
Firstly
I will assume that you have some knowledge
of odds and betting put please forgive me if I explain some aspects in
very simple manner as some of it may be unfamiliar to some readers. If
anything puzzles you then you will be given my direct email address at
the end of this tutorial.
What we are going to
do is extremely simple and
takes very little time to master, but once you have tried it out on a
few races you will get the hang very quickly.
There
is a video link
below that takes you through
a 'live' example of me using the system.
Before
we begin our
tutorial you will need a few
basics. 
Obviously a computer
and Internet connection. If
you have two monitors and can spread your desktop across them then so
much the better, if not then one is fine, you’ll soon be able
to afford another.
Before we start I suggest you take 20
minutes now to open these accounts and claim your free bets.
Please
use the links
at the left hand side of the
page. There is currently over £300 in free bets awaiting you
but bookmark the site and check back regularly as new ones are being
added all the time. Get those accounts open and in an hour from now you
can be winning.
Once
you have your
accounts open and funded you are
ready to begin 'bets that can't lose'
Our
system works by
taking advantage of the
differences in odds offered by traditional bookies and betting
exchanges like Betfair where is possible both to
‘back’ a horse in the traditional way and also
‘lay’ against it, i.e. bet that it will lose.
Because
of the very
different way that Betfair
operates there are often wide variations in the available prices and we
use these to our advantage.
Firstly
we will talk
only in decimal odds, these
are very easy to understand. In traditional fractional odds if you
stake £10 on a horse at 2/1 you get thirty pounds back if it
wins, i.e. £20 winnings plus your £10 stake. In
decimal odds the price stated is the amount you get back including your
stake so the same bet in decimal would be 3.0.
If
you stake
£10 on a winner at 7.6 then
you have a profit of £66, simple as that.
Odds
on Betfair move
very rapidly in real time
response to actual bets placed into the market and can often expose
holes where you can lay a horse at a lower price than you back it, in
fact this happens many times each day and when it does you can lock
your profit it.
Let’s
run through a typical day.
I usually check the
odds firstly at around 10.00am
when the morning odds are available. Sometimes there won’t be
many opportunities at this time but when there are you have plenty time
to take advantage, as the odds will be slow moving.
The
final hour before
the race is when most
opportunities arise, especially the last ten minutes before the off.
The
main site we are
going to use is http://www.oddschecker.com/where
you will find real time prices for each race as follows:

If
you click on the
tab marked ‘Enhanced
Odds’ you will see that a small number of bookmakers are
offering slightly better odds in the win only market and it is often
here where we make our money. These are the main 4 bookies which we
recommended that you open accounts with earlier.

Now
you will see that
odds from Betfair are also
included but I advise you to use the odds direct from the Betfair site
for this, as the updating at oddschecker.com isn’t always
able to keep up with the speed of Betfair.
I
do this using a
free piece of software ‘Bet
Angel
Basic’ which allows real time updating and one click betting
into the Betfair market. There is a much better subscription only
version but for now the free version is fine. You can obtain it from http://www.betangel.com/products/BA/bab.htm
Ok. Let’s
look at a real time example of 'bets that can't lose'

Here
I have overlaid
the Betfair prices against
those from oddschecker and immediately an opportunity presents itself.
You can see that here the second horse down the list ‘This
one’s for Pat’ is available to back with Bet365 at
8.0 but on Betfair I can lay the horse at only 7.2
So
let’s
use £100 stakes for
ease of maths. I bet the horse £100 at 8.0 standing to make
£700 profit if it wins. I then lay it at Betfair with the
same stake, £100 at 7.2 which means I stand to lose
£620 if it wins.
So
if the horse wins
I win £700 at Bet
365 and lose £620 at Betfair a profit of £80, if
the horse loses I lose a hundred at Bet365 but win a hundred at
Betfair. Evens!
NOTE:-
ALWAYS place
the bet with the traditional
bookie before the Betfair one as the odds can change against you and
leave you exposed, with Betfair if there is sufficient liquidity you
will always get the bet on. A little tip with Betfair, if the odds on
your ‘lay’ horse are say 13.00 try laying at 11.00
or 12.00 you’ll nearly always get some of your stake matched
and that means extra profit.
So
essentially if the
horse loses I have had a free
bet. However there is a problem, I haven’t made a profit and
Betfair charge a 5% commission so I would lose £5 and that is
not what we are about.
One
way around this
is to increase the lay stake by
5%. Bet £100 with Bet365 and lay £105.
That
reduces our
profit if the horse wins to
£49 but it means that we break even if it loses. If I fancied
the horse to win I might leave it at that and let the bet run.
However
there is a
better way to lock in profit.
For
ease of maths
let’s say the odds were
8.0 at Bet 365 and 7.0 at Betfair, not an especially big difference but
common enough.
If
we bet
£100 at 8.0 and lay
£100 at 7.0 we have a theoretical profit of £100 if
the horse wins but nothing if it loses so we take some of that money
and effectively bet that the horse will not win by laying it
again.
Bet
Angel
professional will do this calculation for
you and even up the profit no matter which horse wins but and easy way
of calculating the amount to lay is to divide the profit if the horse
wins by the lay odds in this case 100/7 or 14.28.
So
we would now lay
our horse with £14.28
so we now have £100 wagered on the horse to win at 8.00 a
profit of £700 if it wins and we have £114.8 laid
that it will lose at 7.00 which means we would pay out
£685.68 if it wins.
So
if the horse wins
we win £14.32 and if
it loses we win £14.28 minus Betfair commission of around
£5.70 depending on your personal commission rate.
That
doesn’t seem like a vast amount but
consider that there was never at any time risk to your stake money and
you can repeat the exercise several times a day limited only by your
available funds. Sometimes the differences in odds have been staggering
I have seen 100 on the bookmaker side and 40 at Betfair, this stems
from the fact that because of the nature of Betfair their odds move
very rapidly are very often way out of line with the traditional
bookmaker. In our favour!
As
a guide line there
needs to be at least a 5%
difference in the prices to offset the Bet fair commission and of
course
when the horse wins which sometimes it will you don’t have
commission to worry about.
In
our example here
we only used a small difference
in odds to generate a working profit which can be repeated many times
each day, sometimes you will get major difference in prices especially
if you watch Betfair and see a price tumbling in the last few minutes
before the off.
I
would suggest that
you paper trade for a few
races before committing and when you are confident you have the hang
then trade with small stakes but be mindful that there is a
£2
min stake to Betfair so you need to ensure you are not trying to lay
small amounts than this.
You
may need to read
and reread the above with
Oddschecker and Betfair up on your screen to fully get the hang of this
powerful moneymaking system
Before long you will
be happily trading 'bets that can't
lose'.
*************Important************
When
I first made
these betting strategies available I had to
cope with over 100 emails in one weekend, mostly silly questions that
could have been answered by re-reading the above. I have now had to
make a ruling that I will ONLY answer queries from people who have
opened their accounts with links from this page and claimed their free
bets so I get my few pennies commission. You can email me at my private
email address here Ken@kcenterprises.info
but I regret that unless your name appears on my online statement for
at least Betfair and one other bookie I can't guarantee you a reply.
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